"In these matters, I always try to keep in mind that technologies aren't themselves disruptive;"

That is NOT TRUE! Technologies that are disruptive are those that intrinsically possess features that present benefits that exceed the switching costs of existing technologies. Therefore they are inherently disruptive. The timeline of product adoption is decided by consumers yes. Which is actually preceded by (and accelerated by) visionary leaders who can figure out what the benefits of said technology are, where to best use it and then tell people about it (market the technology).

Here's a simple example: graphical user interface. Anyone who saw it early on at Xerox knew it was so obvious. But the timing of its mass appeal, adoption and who would produce the preferred interface was questionable.

This comment alone makes me incredibly skeptical about the way you think.