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jjk166 5 days ago

If your only dataset is 2008 to 2010, yeah your conclusions are almost certainly garbage. Likewise if your dataset is 1999 to 2002, or just the year 1987.

There will always be something going on, but there won't always be this specific thing going on, and if 100% of your data comes from during one specific crisis (nonetheless multiple concurrent crises), then it is 100% useless. Even with longer periods of data, reconcilliation with longer trends is technically challenging. We've had enough recessions to correct for them in our data, but until we've had a half dozen global pandemics you can't use pandemic data in your analysis.