I’m not sure I agree. Windows still has 95% market share in Steam’s hardware report. And even the modest gains that Linux has seen in this space have been as much a result of the efforts of a few small companies who have financial interests in undermining Microsoft’s monopoly as it has been a display of grassroots enthusiasm for open ecosystems.

Entrenched technologies take a while to un-trench; there's a lead lag on that kind of thing.

It starts with the kids saying I hate Windows. Then the adults. Then finally the grandmas. Windows will be evaporating marketshare for decades, like a long-half life on an unstable isotope.

The thing about market share is that it looks like sigmoid function. It's way more difficult to climb from 1% to 2% than from 40% to 50%.

I agree that it is still too early to call it, but note how SteamOS still hasn't officially come out on laptops/desktops yet.