You can see what people built with LLM 3 years ago and what they build with LLM today and compare the two.

That is a very natural and efficient way to do it, and also more reliable than using your own experience since you are just a single data point with feelings.

You don't have to drive a car to see where cars were 20 years ago, see where cars are today, and say: "it doesn't look like cars will start flying anytime soon".

Fair, but what about saying that cars didn't improve in 20 years (the last time you drove one) because they are still not flying?