It feels like all this is because the point of school/college/university is just to get a piece of paper rather than to earn skills. Why wouldn't you get chatgpt to write your essay when your only goal is to get a passing grade.

My optimistic take is that the rise of AI in education could cause more workplaces to move away from "must have xyz degree" and actually determine if the candidate has the skills needed.

I agree with this in principle, but the problem is what happens to the in-between generation that cheats their way towards getting the piece of paper before the world moves on to a better way? At least for previous generations you got the piece of paper and you acquired some skills/knowledge.

For this reason, I don't feel as optimistic as you do. I worry instead that equality gaps will widen significantly: there will be the majority which abuses AI and graduates with empty brains, and there will be the minority who somehow manage to avoid doing that (e.g. lucky enough to have parents with sufficient foresight to take preventative measures with their children).