> buy from companies that are lower-cost and less focused on selling you "enterprise support" (supermicro et al).

From past experience, vendors like SuperMicro aren't much cheaper at scale because Dell can give 80% discounts on volume, and most Dell server sales are done via Channel with an MSP who will manage and administer the system.

Ofc, this continues to reinforce my belief that the "AI boom" in it's current form (and once you remove the scooby doo monster mask) is basically a "Datacenter/Telecom Bubble" 2.0 like back in 2000-01. The multiples, messaging, vendors, and margins are almost the exact same.

During the Dot-com Boom, Telecom and hardware companies were also expanding DC and telecom capacity massively (to surf and host a website on the Internet, you kinda need Internet and web hosting), and when the Dotbomb happened, the Telco bubble collapsed subsequently as well (remember WorldCom/MCI?)

That's why the 2000s were horrible for anyone with a CS/CE/CSE/EE degree, because both software AND hardware industries collapsed. Imagine a world in the late 2020s where you cannot land a job as a Fullstack Engineer OR an ML Infra Engineer - that was the 2000s except with older stacks.

That's also why I'd be optimistic if a bust happens - the overcapacity in compute that arose from the Telecom and Dot-Com Busts both helped usher the Cloud, SaaS, E-Commerce, and Social Media boom because the infra has been laid and became cost effective. It is also in this context that Paul G's "cockroach" and "ramen profitability" essay came to the fore.

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oblio 6 days ago | parent | next [-]

The thing is, the bust froze everything for 1 or 2 years, which sucked for regular IT folks plus this time there also a huge oversupply of IT graduates. I wouldn't be surprised if there are 10x more people working in IT then back then.

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alephnerd 6 days ago | parent [-]

Mind you, I was just a kid when it happened so I'm basing it off of 2nd hand stories, but my understanding was anyone with a pulse (ie. A hs grad or a college dropout) could get hired into the industry at the time (eg. The KOTH joke that if Peggy was laid off from being a substitute teacher she'd learn to design software).

At least ime in the 2010s and 2020s, while you had some aspect of that with bootcamp grads, it wasn't to the same degree. Or was it? Like I said, I was a kid when the busts happened so I have no frame of reference.

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shermantanktop 6 days ago | parent [-]

I had a pulse and got into this industry in the 90s through the back door.

It’s been a long run and I’ve seen busts come and go. It’s worked out really well for me, even while I’ve watched a surprising number of highly-credentialed new hires flop out over the years. I continue to appreciate people with oddball resumes.

	▲	tracker1 6 days ago \| parent [-]
		Similar here, no formal higher education starting in the early-mid 90's, just a lot of reading/learning and experimenting along the way... Even while working, I've spent 15-20 hours a week most of my career on learning activities. Somewhat hardware oriented and worked a few tech support/helpdesk and internal IT jobs in the early-mid 90's when I got more into programming as a side-step from design/art.

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ToucanLoucan 6 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Also anecdotally: back in my sysadmin days, the Supermicros we had had so many more problems than the Dells. Granted this was 2012-2015 era hardware being run in 2018, so I can't say for certain if that's even remotely still true, but yeah.

The 'Micro's ethernets were all shot by the time we closed up shop so each had an expansion card for 10G ethernet at that point, and one we had to run VM management on 10G because the 1G we used elsewhere had shit the bed in that unit somewhere along the way and we couldn't be bothered to buy yet another card and tear down the server again for it. Plus management traffic was negligible.

I don't miss that job. Fuck being on-call.

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firesteelrain 6 days ago | parent | prev [-]

> That's why the 2000s were horrible for anyone with a CS/CE/CSE/EE degree, because both software AND hardware industries collapsed

Odd, anecdotally I remember people saying that, but had no issue getting a job in 2004 as a fresh CS grad.

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xp84 6 days ago | parent | next [-]

Also anecdotally: by 2006 I also don't think it was that hard, in SF. 2008 of course kicked off a new cycle of capital scarcity, but, what it seemed like to me was that two gold rushes kicked off in earnest around that time which in tech seemed to mitigate any major difficulties for software people: First the online/Facebook gaming goldrush (Zynga being the poster child, but there were dozens more publishers, advertising and monetization firms drinking from that trough) and of course the App Store goldrush.

	▲	no_wizard 6 days ago \| parent [-]
		In 2008 I remember being in tech was able to largely ignore the recession that everyone else was getting reamed by because mobile, Facebook games and generally social media, and general Web 2.0 was getting big investment across the board. The low hanging fruits still had not all been plucked. If I had been smarter I would have bought up property at what I now know were the lowest prices I’d ever see, but alas, I did not

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alistairSH 6 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Having started my career in 1999 (and if you could spell C++, you were pretty well guaranteed at job at a good salary), I remember two things...

- 2000-20001 - "small" recession, along with the dot-com bubble bursting. Lasted through 2003 or so, though the bulk of job loss (across industries) was 2001 into 2002.

- 2008-2010 - housing market collapse - world-wide impact. Most of us probably remember that period. It as brutal for everybody, not just STEM grads. Too big to fail and all that hocus-pocus.

I was RIF'ed in Dec 2001, took a few months to find a job I wanted, but wasn't all that bad given I was pretty darn junior at the time.

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tracker1 6 days ago | parent [-]

Yeah, I was/am in Phoenix where it seemed to trail about 8 months... it totally dropped here after 9/11 though. I remember effectively having the plague looking for work through 2002. Was working pretty regularly again by the end of 2003 though... those were a couple rough years though.

	▲	alistairSH 6 days ago \| parent [-]
		DC metro here. My initial job hunting in early 2002 was rough - lots of laid off contractors and dot-com folk. Job fairs were a total bust - too many people to get noticed, especially as a junior dev without any .gov contracting experience (no TS/poly etc). Got a few interviews and offers in the defense industry, but the lack of TS/poly was a killer - even companies that were willing to do the paperwork had deadlines and Uncle Sam couldn't process request fast enough so a few offers died on the vine. Eventually got a job through a friend (usually how it works, IME) and have been here ever since. Not .gov, but sort of government-adjacent (higher ed) so still a bit protected from the vagaries of the market and moneymen's whims.