I don’t interpret the above as mean-spirited comment, but it does miss the point of the example I gave; namely, people second-guessing a market (or information heavily influenced by markets, like a new funding round) tend to lose. (Of course there are examples in the other direction, but they are less common and do not deserve equal emphasis.)

In general, a market synthesizes more information than any one individual, and when they operate well it is unlikely for an individual is going to beat them.

This is a well known general pattern, so if someone wants to argue in the other direction, they need to be ready to offer very strong evidence and reasoning why the market is wrong — and even when they do, they’re still probably going to be wrong.