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m101 2 days ago

This round started at $5bn target and it ends at $13bn. When this sort of thing happens it's normally because the company wants to 1) hit the "hot" market, and 2) has uncertainty about their ability to raise revenues at higher valuations in the future.

Whatever it is, the signal it's sending of Anthropic insiders is negative for AI investors.

Other comments having read a few hundred comments here:

- there is so much confusion, uncertainty, and fanciful thinking that it reminds me of the other bubbles that existed when people had to stretch their imaginations to justify valuations

- there is increasing spend on training models, and decreasing improvements in new models. This does not bode well

- wealth is an extremely difficult thing to define. It's defined vaguely through things like cooperation and trade. Ultimately these llms actually do need to create "wealth" to justify the massive investments made. If they don't do this fast this house of cards is going to fall, fast.

- having worked in finance and spoken to finance types for a long time: they are not geniuses. They are far from it. Most people went into finance because of an interest in money. Just because these people have $13bn of other people's money at their disposal doesn't mean they are any smarter than people orders of magnitude poorer. Don't assume they know what they are doing.

masterjack 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

I may agree if it was a 20% dilution round, but not if they are increasing from 3% to 7% dilution. Being so massively oversubscribed is a bullish sign, bad companies would be struggling to fill out their round.

asdffdasy 2 days ago | parent [-]

your crystal ball needs calibration. this round alone was 14pct (183/13)... so the dillution was likely over 20pct.

masterjack 2 days ago | parent [-]

13/183=0.071 so how can it be 20pct for this round??

1oooqooq a day ago | parent [-]

can't see your point. this is already close to .1 so it can only go up. since it's series F it would be very likely to be at .2 as the parent said. but i would guess close to .5 or more by now. not counting all they had dole out to employees thanks to fb

utyop22 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Lol yeah I generally read most comments on here with one eye closed. This is one of the good ones though.

xpe 2 days ago | parent [-]

It helps me to know that there are other people noticing this. Like Fox News, a lot of comments here probably make us dumber.

utyop22 2 days ago | parent [-]

Yeah you have to be careful on the internet in general TBH.

This place is better than much of the internet but still. Ah the dream would be to have this place somehow be filled with the experts on all topics and let them duel it out.