This is roughly where I am on the matter. If the energy costs stay massive, your investment in AI is really just a bet that energy production will get cheaper. If the energy costs fall, so does the moat that keeps valuations like this one afloat.

If there's a step-function breakthrough in efficiency, it's far more likely to be on the model side than on the semiconductor side. Even then, investing in the model companies only makes sense if you think one of them is going to be able to keep that innovation within their walls. Otherwise, you run into the same moat-draining problem.

Yeah. Electricity production that we also need for electrifying all of our transports and industry because of climate change. Good luck getting that cheaper.

That said innovation on the model side is more likely to come from a 10B-funded startup that still has some money to spare on the brightest researchers on top of giving them all the data and compute they want to play with.