| ▲ | Symmetry 3 days ago |
| Proudly proclaiming on the Conversations With Tyler podcast that given a double or nothing bet with a 51% chance of success he'd keep playing forever. |
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| ▲ | arduanika 3 days ago | parent | next [-] |
| It is probably just a coincidence, but it's darkly funny how well this lines up with the strategy described in a rather infamous LessWrong post. The title is "Solutions to the Altruist's burden: the Quantum Billionaire Trick", but you probably know it by a different name. The author is one Roko Mijic. |
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| ▲ | rsynnott 2 days ago | parent [-] | | Probably not a total confidence; it’s EA/rationalist theory taken to ludicrous extremes in both cases. | | |
| ▲ | rsynnott 2 days ago | parent [-] | | *coincidence | | |
| ▲ | arduanika 2 days ago | parent [-] | | Yeah, not a total coincidence of thinking style. I just don't think it's likely that SBF was literally thinking about Roko's post as he did the crimes. |
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| ▲ | AnimalMuppet 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Not forever. He'd have nothing soon enough. |
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| ▲ | twostorytower 2 days ago | parent | prev [-] |
| Isn't that just the right thing to do, statistically? Vegas has been operating profitably this way for decades. |
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| ▲ | roncesvalles 2 days ago | parent | next [-] | | It's not the same due to the Law of Large Numbers. The risk involved in many small 51% bets is very different from the risk in a single all-or-nothing 51% bet. | | |
| ▲ | lelanthran 2 days ago | parent [-] | | > The risk involved in many small 51% bets is very different from the risk in a single all-or-nothing 51% bet. Right, but parent didn't say anything about an all-in bet, just double-or-nothing on a positive EV bet. Frankly, I'd repeatedly bet on a positive EV bet too; it's a guaranteed win if you're allowed to go on for as long as you want to. |
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| ▲ | FergusArgyll 2 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | The context was double or nothing the entire human population of the universe. |
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