Since most QC researchers are saying that the real use cases are not Shor's or Grover's but rather molecular simulation (calculating ground state energies), do we have a timeline for doing anything useful in this space with quantum computers? A quick Googling indicates it take about 12 logical qubits to simulate extremely simple molecules like LiH and H4. Does the qubit requirement just scale linearly with the total number of electrons or is there an exponential function in there somewhere? I'm trying to get a sense of whetherf material science and biological applications are similarly 30+ years out or might come substantially sooner.

The real limit for quantum chemistry in NISQ is the circuit volume, since it requires O(N^4) gates.