Well, hate to be that guy, but surgeons general warnings coincided with significant reduction in smoking. We've just reached the flattening of that curve. After decades of declines.

It's hard to believe that a prominent well - worded warning would do nothing but that's not to say it'll be effective for this.

It reminds me of when the UK Prime Minister sent a letter to all 30 milliom households during the first Covid lockdown.

Printing and postage cost was about £5.8 million. At the time, I thought it was a waste of taxpayers’ money. A letter wouldn’t change anyone’s behaviour, least of all not mine or anyone I knew.

But the economics told a different story. The average cost of treating a Covid patient in intensive care ran to tens of thousands of pounds. The UK Treasury values preventing a single death at around £2 million (their official Value of a Prevented Fatality). That means if the letter nudged just three people into behaviour that prevented their deaths, it would have paid for itself. Three deaths, out of 30 million households.

In reality, the effect was likely far larger. If only 0.1% of households (30,000 families) changed their behaviour even slightly, whether through better handwashing, reduced contact, or staying home when symptomatic, those small actions would multiply during an exponential outbreak. The result could easily be hundreds of lives saved and millions in healthcare costs avoided.

Seen in that light, £5.8 million wasn’t wasteful at all. It was one of the smarteer investments of the pandemic.

What I dismissed as wasteful and pointless, turned out to be a great example of how what appears to be a large upfront cost can deliver returns that massively outweigh the initial outlay.

I changed my view and admitted I was wrong.

The surgeon general warning came along with a large number of other measures to reduce smoking. If that warning had an effect, I would guess that effect was to prime the public for the other measures and generally to change consensus.

BUT, I think it's very likely that the surgeon general warning was closer to a signal that consensus had been achieved. That voice of authority didn't actually _tell_ anyone what to believe, but was a message that anyone could look around and use many sources to see that there was a consensus on the bad effects of smoking.

Well if that's true, by all means.

But saying "This AI system may cause harm" reads to me as similar to saying "This delightful substance may cause harm."

The category error is more important.