I think it’s the other way around. I’m a huge fan of Hetzner for small sites with a few users. However, for bigger projects, the cloud seems to offer a complete lack of constraints. For projects that can pay for my time, $200/m or $2000/m in hosting costs is a negligible difference. What’s the development cost difference between AWS CDK / Terraform + GitHub Actions vs. Docker / K8s / Ansible + any CI pipeline? I don’t know; in my experience, I don’t see how “bare metal” saves much engineering time. I also don’t see anything complicated about using an IaC Fargate + RDS template.

Now, if you actually need to decouple your file storage and make it durable and scalable, or need to dynamically create subdomains, or any number of other things… The effort of learning and integrating different dedicated services at the infrastructure level to run all this seems much more constraining.

I’ve been doing this since before the “Cloud,” and in my view, if you have a project that makes money, cloud costs are a worthwhile investment that will be the last thing that constrains your project. If cloud costs feel too constraining for your project, then perhaps it’s more of a hobby than a business—at least in my experience.

Just thinking about maintaining multiple cluster filesystems and disk arrays—it’s just not what I would want to be doing with most companies’ resources or my time. Maybe it’s like the difference between folks who prefer Arch and setting up Emacs just right, versus those happy with a MacBook. If I felt like changing my kernel scheduler was a constraint, I might recommend Arch; but otherwise, I recommend a MacBook. :)

On the flip side, I’ve also tried to turn a startup idea into a profitable project with no budget, where raw throughput was integral to the idea. In that situation, a dedicated server was absolutely the right choice, saving us thousands of dollars. But the idea did not pan out. If we had gotten more traction, I suspect we would have just vertically scaled for a while. But it’s unusual.

> I really don't see how "bare metal" saves any engineering time

This is because you are looking only at provisioning/deployment. And you are right -- node size does not impact DevOps all that much.

I am looking at the solution space available to the engineers who write the software that ultimately gets deployed on the nodes. And that solution space is different when the nodes have 10x the capability. Yes, cloud providers have tons of aggregate capability. But designing software to run on a fleet of small machines is very different from accomplishing the same tasks on a single large machine.

It would not be controversial to suggest that targeting code at an Apple Watch or Raspberry Pi imposes constraints on developers that do not exist when targeting desktops. I am saying the same dynamic now applies to targeting cloud providers.

This isn't to say there's a single best solution for everything. But there are tradeoffs that are now always apparent. The art is knowing when it makes sense to pay the Cloud Tax, and whether to go 100% Cloud vs some proportion of dedicated.

> I’m a huge fan of Hetzner ... I don’t see how “bare metal” saves much engineering time.

I think you confuse Heztner with bare metal. Hetzner has Hetzner Cloud which is like AWS EC2 but much cheaper. (They also have bare metal servers which are even cheaper.) With Heztner Cloud, you can use Terraform, Github Actions and whatever else you mentioned.