> Excluding yourself how many iPhones do you see in the wild have a home button? I'd estimate less than 1 in 20, or 5%. If less than 5% of people are keeping their phones while they're in support

5% of all iPhone users having a home button does not mean that only 5% of iPhone SE purchasers are keeping their phones, since the population of iPhone SE purchasers is smaller than the population of iPhone users.

Let's be conservative and say about 10% of iPhone users ever bought an SE. If SE users now make up about 5% of the iPhone user base, that would mean that about half have kept their devices -- an order of magnitude off from your 5% claim.