| ▲ | prisenco 2 days ago | |||||||||||||||||||
| "what if it keeps getting better at this same rate?" All relevant and recent evidence points to logarithmic improvement, not the exponential we were told (promised) in the beginning. We're likely waiting at this point for another breakthrough on the level of the attention paper. That could be next year, it could be 5-10 years from now, it could be 50 years from now. There's no point in prediction. | ||||||||||||||||||||
| ▲ | tombert 2 days ago | parent | next [-] | |||||||||||||||||||
Yeah, that's how I feel about it. People like to assume that progress is this steady upward line, but I think it's more like a staircase. Someone comes up with something cool, there's a lot of amazing progress in the short-to-mid term, and then things kind of level out. I mean, hell, this isn't even the first time that this has happened with AI [1]. The newer AI models are pretty cool but I think we're getting into the "leveling out" phase of it. | ||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▲ | themafia 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | |||||||||||||||||||
> logarithmic improvement Relative to time. Not relative to capital investment. There it's nearly perfectly linear. | ||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▲ | BoiledCabbage 2 days ago | parent | prev [-] | |||||||||||||||||||
> All relevant and recent evidence points to logarithmic improvement, Any citations for this pretty strong assertion? And please don't reply with "oh you can just tell by feel". | ||||||||||||||||||||