> we've had decades of compiler development since itanium "proved" this.

I think an equally large change is the enormous rise of open source and supply chain focus. When Itanium came out, there was tons of code businesses ran which had been compiled years ago, lots of internal reimplementation of what would now be library code, and places commonly didn’t upgrade for years because that was also often a licensing purchase. Between open source and security, it’s a lot more reasonable now to think people will be running optimized binaries from day one and in many cases the common need to support both x86 and ARM will have flushed out a lot of compatibility warts along with encouraging use of libraries rather than writing as many things on their own.