Why are you assuming the cases where humans can code better than AI still exists after three years say -- I think in some industries today artisanal products are also not higher quality than machine made ones.

Because we're not even close to that happening. However I've observed a sort of cognitive decline in a few formerly experienced and extremely knowledgeable developers whom I used to respect. They happen to be the most vocal supporters of LLMs now and sometimes our discussions get so ridiculous I have to practically beg them to put the LLM down and just think about what they're saying for just 5 seconds. I think they're about a year away from believing that the sky is green if the AI says so.

So maybe LLMs will win on a technicality by making us more stupid as a species.

Progress under current paradigms has gotten much slower

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence and if there's one thing we've learned is that progress in AI is not linear nor predictable. We've been a few years away from fully self-driving cars for a really long time now.