In terms of sources, I would trust Zitron a lot more than Altman or Amodei. To be charitable, those CEOs are known for their hyperbole and for saying whatever is convenient in the moment, but they certainly aren't that careful about being precise or leaving out inconvenient details. Which is what a CEO should do, more or less, but, I wouldn't trust their word on most things.

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dcre 5 days ago | parent [-]

I agree we should not take CEOs at their word, we have to think about whether what they're saying is more likely to be true than false given other things we know. But to trust Zitron on anything is ridiculous. He is not a source at all: he knows very little, does zero new reporting, and frequently contradicts himself in his frenzy to believe the bubble is about to pop any time now. A simple example: claiming both that "AI is very little of big tech revenue" and "Big tech has no other way to show growth other than AI hype". Both are very nearly direct quotes.

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jcranmer 5 days ago | parent [-]

Those two statements are not contradictory, and thinking that they are belies a pretty fundamental misunderstanding of his basic thesis.

The first statement is one about the present value of AI. The second statement is about their belief of the future value of AI.

	▲	dcre 5 days ago \| parent [-]
		It is not about the present and future value of AI at all. It is about the present and future value of things other than AI. Here is the full quote: "There is nothing else after generative AI. There are no other hypergrowth markets left in tech. SaaS companies are out of things to upsell. Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta do not have any other ways to continue showing growth, and when the market works that out, there will be hell to pay, hell that will reverberate through the valuations of, at the very least, every public software company, and many of the hardware ones too." I am not doing some kind of sophisticated act of interpretation here. If AI is very little of big tech revenue, and big tech are posting massive record revenue and profits every quarter, then it cannot be the case that "there is nothing left after generative AI" and they “do not have any other ways to continue showing growth” — what is left is whatever is driving all that revenue and profit growth right now!