No matter how I frame or interpret this question, the birthdays and birth order appear completely irrelevant - the results are still ~0.50 as expected. Whatever the author was trying to say, they didn't communicate it well. I'm really curious exactly what word or phrase the author thought I was supposed to take to mean something else. If someone could edit one of these simulations to show what the author intended then that would probably be the clearest way.

LudwigNagasena 4 days ago | parent [-]

https://www.online-python.com/6LDtZz7lMh

* Take all families with two children

* Take a subset where at least one child is a boy born on Tuesday

* Take a subset of the previous subset where all children are boys

* The share of the 2nd subset relative to the 1st subset is around 48%

	▲	jimmaswell a day ago \| parent [-]
		Yeah, makes sense. I thought I saw someone say 1/3 which is what seemed impossible.