> Given State of World, my take on it is there's far more hedonism and irresponsibility in having kids.

Compared to what? We're living in some of the best times humanity as a whole ever had. Deciding en-masse to not have kids is the irresponsible thing because it literally condemns humanity to extinction and creates a self-fulfilling prophecy. You're cursing the world because you stubbed your toe. Social media inflicted this kind of feeling a lot over the last couple of decades.

> but will their lives be happy?

You'd have to ask them. Humans overwhelmingly choose to live so you could conclude that they prefer existing over the alternative. Happiness is very relative and you'd have a hard time defining it even for yourself, let alone for your hypothetical unborn child.

> The evidence says it's very unlikely.

There's absolutely no evidence to support anything you said. It's your personal preference and you're entitled to it. Why don't you own your choice instead of putting it on fictitious evidence that your unborn child will be unhappy?

> My choice is not to inflict that experience on another sentient being

Whatever you pick you're making that choice for you, not for them.

And at least in my experience, children do not get existential despair about the state of the world until adulthood, unless it is given to them from outside forces.

Children don't know the world exists beyond their town until they're instructed on it!