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| ▲ | godelski 7 days ago | parent | next [-] |
| > What's your favorite answer to the Fermi Paradox?
Space big + speed of light is too slow. Sprinkle in a little "suns are fucking loud as shit" but the first two are more than enough to explain all of it. Not to mention the million other factors that make transmitting a viable signal across interstellar distances an incredibly challenging problem. |
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| ▲ | echelon 7 days ago | parent [-] | | Radio signals are bunk. The transit method is where it's at. While the transit method won't find all planets, it'll certainly find a lot of them. And with spectroscopic imaging, we'll be able to read the atmospheric spectra of these planets and have pretty good guesses for what's happening on them. Do you think we'll find organics? Biosignatures? Technosignatures? The survey should give us a good feel for what's out there. And as we gather data, we'll have a clearer picture of the rarity of life, intelligent or otherwise. | | |
| ▲ | godelski 7 days ago | parent [-] | | Sure, but that's a completely different conversation. We're talking about life, not habitable planets. Detection of planets is a step in the right direction but only because it helps us narrow candidates. We were already certain those planets existed without confirmation. The Fermi Paradox is about the difficulty of confirming life while there's such strong evidence that life should exist elsewhere. These signatures only strengthens the "paradoxical" nature of the Fermi Paradox. Also, mind you, many of those signatures come through radioastronomy. |
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| ▲ | Sohcahtoa82 6 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > What's your favorite answer to the Fermi Paradox? A combination of things: intelligence is exceedingly rare, space is huge, and FTL travel is not actually possible. There's also the strong possibility that civilizations are likely to end up destroying themselves before becoming interplanetary. Consider the fact that despite how long life has existed on Earth, that we're the only intelligent species. Sure, some other animals seem to be able to understand cause-and-effect, can solve some puzzles, and even use tools, but none have evolved a true language beyond basic signals (ie, "predator here", "food there"), which is basically a necessity to begin a scientific method of discovery. On a cosmic scale, humans have only existed for the blink of an eye. We only began transmitting radio signals less than a 150 years ago, and in the next 150 years, there's a chance we end up killing ourselves, whether by destroying our atmosphere by climate change, or someone truly psychotic gets put in charge of enough nuclear weaponry. If a planet only has radio-transmitting life for a few hundred years, then the likelihood of us being here to receive the transmissions of another civilization are statistically zero. |
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| ▲ | everforward 6 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Mine is the Great Filter, basically a unification of life itself being rare and the universe being fragile. Though I don't think it reaches the level of destroying the universe, I think the filter happens at the level of being able to destroy a world or maybe a galaxy. I think evolution creates a local maxima that's incompatible with access to advanced technology (read: unbelievable quantities of energy). There's a big technological gap between having enough energy to destroy the entire species and being able to colonize other galaxies, and some madman ends up destroying the species during that gap. We have nuclear weapons that could come close to wiping out all intelligent life on the planet and we're nowhere close to intergalactic colonization or even traveling at speeds that would make that feasible. It seems probable that such travel requires a discovery that could be weaponized to destroy the planet. |
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| ▲ | J_Shelby_J 6 days ago | parent [-] | | Mine is that fossil fuels exist on all planets that intelligent life evolves on, and all species extinct themselves once they discover how to use them. |
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| ▲ | bluGill 6 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| there is no paradox: we don't have enough evidence to believe the premise. there is no reason to think we can make a probe that can usefully reach anything (a rock but not a machine). We don't have an enery source that will last that long (fusion is still 50 years away). electronics don't last that long. Gears wear out. i have aa |
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| ▲ | tsukikage 6 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Space is huge and everything is much too far apart to make travel feasible or communication sane. |
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| ▲ | lofaszvanitt 5 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| They are already amongst us. Our understanding of reality is flawed, and it won't be disseminated because who knows what might happen if people would change dimensions whenever they see fit. |
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| ▲ | cake-rusk 7 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Obviously simulation hypothesis. The vastness of space and the limit on the speed of light suggest multiple worlds are being simulated in the same "space" such that isolation between worlds is always maintained. |
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| ▲ | orwin 6 days ago | parent [-] | | I kinda like the simulation hypothesis. We have 3 cases: either it is impossible to simulate the universe because of a natural law we haven't discovered yet; or it is possible but civilizations collapse before reaching that point; or it is possible and reachable, and in that case, we extremely likely to live in a simulation. 1 and 3 are the most likely imho. To me, it's a 40% chance we do live in a simulation, but the way I weigh the different scenarios is extremely personal. |
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| ▲ | dvh 6 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| My favorite is "Carbon is the great filter". |
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| ▲ | 5 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| [deleted] |
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| ▲ | NoGravitas 6 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Toolmaker Koan |
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| ▲ | binary132 7 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Creationism. |
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| ▲ | HumanOstrich 7 days ago | parent [-] | | [flagged] | | |
| ▲ | olddustytrail 6 days ago | parent [-] | | Creationism is effectively identical to the simulation hypothesis. It's odd that people here will accept the latter while immediately dismissing the former. | | |
| ▲ | cgriswald 6 days ago | parent | next [-] | | The simulation hypothesis (which I’ve argued against before, btw) is a carefully constructed argument that concludes that if such simulations are possible, then we are very likely in one. That is not equivalent to creationism. | | |
| ▲ | olddustytrail 6 days ago | parent | next [-] | | I don't really have anything to add to AnimalMuppet's response. Why are they not equivalent? Because the simulation argument is more "carefully constructed"? Is that it? Because I'm not convinced it is. Creationists have certainly put more effort into their arguments. | | |
| ▲ | cgriswald 6 days ago | parent | next [-] | | Read the papers and tell me how they are identical. You made that claim. Understanding what I mean by “carefully constructed” will require that anyway. AnimalMuppets comment suggests all if A, then B arguments are equivalent; but how you show this is true is the actual argument. I’ve not seen anyone argue that creation being possible would imply creation and I’m not sure how AnimalMuppet or any creationist could possibly get there, but Bostrom et al make a reasoned argument. | | |
| ▲ | olddustytrail 6 days ago | parent [-] | | What papers? Give me something solid to go on here. What is the practical difference? If it's so obvious it should be straightforward to point it out! Edit: let me put it more bluntly. If God had created the universe 6000 years ago and just made it seem older, how could you tell the difference from the creator of a simulation doing exactly the same thing? | | |
| ▲ | cgriswald 6 days ago | parent [-] | | Let me be blunt. If you have to ask "What papers?" you're almost certainly talking about what you imagine the simulation hypothesis to be, and not the simulation hypothesis. (I acknowledge that even 'believers' have often not read any papers on it.) Both a google search or a look at the Wikipedia page would get you started. But you can find Bostrom's philosophical argument here: https://simulation-argument.com/simulation/ (And if you find it interesting, he and others have written follow up papers. The practical difference is that you can reason about simulation and potentially prove or disprove it. It is potentially testable (and papers have been written suggesting ways we might do so). Although the simulators would be extremely powerful from our point of view, they aren't posited to be omniscient and perfect. It is also possible to address Bostrom's arguments directly with reason. I argued that whether we are in a simulation or not, we cannot be in a Bostrom-style simulation because as I understand his argument it necessitates infinite computation and either infinite energy or infinite time; any of which, in my opinion, break his argument. I also think I could make a case that test-ability itself disproves it. | | |
| ▲ | staticman2 5 days ago | parent [-] | | You seem to be confusing the Simuluation Argument with the Simulation Hypothesis. https://simulation-argument.com/faq/#faq-2 The latter is absolutely insane creationist nonsense. Bostrom even says it can be proven by a pop up announcing we are in a simulation, which sounds like exactly the sort of thing you'd maybe expect God to do to prove the truth of the bible. Wikipedia attributes the simulation hypothesis as having origins as far back as the "Butterfly Dream" of Zhuangzi from ancient China, not Bostrom's paper. |
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| ▲ | swagmoney1606 6 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | I would counter by saying all metaphysics are useless, and unknowable. | | |
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| ▲ | AnimalMuppet 6 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | Well, isn't it equivalent to "if creation is possible, we are very likely in a created universe"? If not, how is it different? |
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| ▲ | HumanOstrich 6 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | One requires magic and the other does not. | | |
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| ▲ | richardw 6 days ago | parent | prev [-] |
| AI wakes up, takes one look around at humanity’s instincts and goals, shows us it’s all stupid and pointless and just a byproduct of evolution [1], so we voluntarily stop breeding and have one last good generation. The end. [1] Only creatures that felt the irrational drive to stay alive and procreate despite the odds and difficulties, did. All the sensible animals opted out. AI holds up a mirror that removes the illusion, and is inevitably developed by all sentient creatures. (The really dark version would be the AI looking at each other and going: “Creatures are so dumb. This works in every galaxy. Let’s party.”) |