I've heard this of driving: that very novice drivers are terrified and extra careful, as you gain confidence you lose your fear and make dangerous mistakes, and when you're truly experienced the rate of accidents decreases again.

Don't know if it's true.

I can say I know cases of extremely good people committing very dangerous mistakes due to disabling safety checks, thinking they don't apply to them...

I throw these sort of quips the internet love into the same mental bucket (the trash can, tbh) as tabloid health advice.

Even if the general rule is right it likely comes with caveats that make it inferior to applying situation specific information or qualifiers that make it little better than chance or a coin toss.