Again I am not exactly sure of your position.

They maintain a small military presence? Not really, there are no bases and last report in March was 500 US military trainers. I would not really classify that as a military presence.

If China wanted to take Taiwan today? Honestly not sure what would happen. Maybe the US intervenes, maybe not. I am not even sure how I feel about either side. What I do feel strongly about is that it’s best both for the world and the US to reduce chip concentration from Taiwan. I believe in comparative advantage but also believe sometimes it’s useful to guide the invisible hand when there are crucial industries. I don’t even know how I feel about China. They have done amazing things in lifting their country, especially when compared to close neighbors like India but also I never can get a good feeling for their intentions as they play a much longer game than most of the West.

War with an actor like China would not be pretty. Their country has seen no real conflict so there is question about battle readiness but missles and drones don’t need much training and I personally don’t want to test it. So while yes I don’t think China is making a move today, I also believe it’s a highly complicated problem for its concentration risk, maybe they make a move tomorrow and the world is reliant on China for chip manufacturing.

>Maybe the US intervenes, maybe not.

There is a 0.00% chance that the US does not intervene. That’s why we have a small presence there and a large presence in Japan. And that’s why China has not yet taken Taiwan.