It's not like they have a great hand to play, especially if China is going in 2027 the way people think.

dghlsakjg 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

If there weren’t other players in the game that might be true. As it is, though, the EU is rapidly rearming, and has proven itself to be far more principled and stable in the Ukraine conflict.

I wouldn’t trust a deal done with the USA to be worth anything right now. I would trust a deal done with Europe, Korea or Japan. All of whom would love to have TSMC build a fab in their respective territories.

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AnimalMuppet 3 days ago | parent [-]

The EU may be rapidly rearming, but there is no way it will be in a position to help fight off a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2027. They won't have the navy. They won't have the force projection capabilities. They won't have the ability to get past China to get assets to Taiwan.

	▲	dghlsakjg 3 days ago \| parent [-]
		I’m talking about a deal with TSMC to safeguard their production. Although, between the EU, Japan and Korea there might be enough of an incentive for China to think twice even without the US involved. There are two countries in the EU that operate nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers. More with conventional subs. Shutting down the sea lanes in that area would be relatively easy for any number of European countries. One thing that Ukraine (if Iraq and Afghanistan didn’t already) has proven is that it is much harder to win a war for a major power than the posturing would have you believe.

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Yeul 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The realistic scenario is that the Taiwanese elite does a deal with the CCP.

America is nobody's friend, at the end of the day China are still Chinese. Americans are xenophobic and racist. Increasingly anti free trade and isolationist.

Also I am incredibly sceptical that the US wants to go to all out war with China over Taiwan. A war they aren't even sure they can win and that REGARDLESS OF OUTCOME will leave Taiwan in ruins.

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Larrikin 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

If the US is poised for full on dictatorship, it makes sense to go in early.

If there will be a change in leadership, it makes sense to wait until the US has weakened every alliance as much as possible under Trump and then invade quickly like what Russia did.

	▲	AnimalMuppet 3 days ago \| parent [-]
		Xi has demanded that China be "ready" in 2027. So he seems to think that China will not be militarily capable of doing so before then. (Or at least he seems to be saying that. It could be a misdirection.)