This raises the question: hasn't the market already priced in a ubiquitous AI future? The current valuations seem to reflect the assumption that AI won't just 2x developer productivity but will also automate a huge portion of the workforce/boot productivity across the board. And I believe it has, and it's the only way to explain the sky-high valuations for companies that are 1) still losing money and, more importantly, 2) have no moat.

If that's true, then we are in a bubble by definition. When AI development eventually stagnates, failing to deliver on these promises, valuations will correct fast (and painfully). What happens then to Nvidia and other hardware companies? And what about the massive AI investments currently propping up the economy [1]? These would also be slashed, messing up the entire supply chain that's gearing up to meet this demand.

While I agree the technology is great and useful, I believe we are in bubble territory. I believe it's unlikely to be as transformative as the CEOs and VCs funding these companies claim.

[1] https://sherwood.news/markets/the-ai-spending-boom-is-eating...