Yes the thing that might be missed in the point about how the big buildout of GPU compute is going to be the backbone of the future etc is that, unlike railroads and dark fibre, the GPU compute gets obsolete really really quickly. So it's not the same.

I had a friend who got a Sun cluster for basically free when the 2000 dot com bubble burst. And when we were doing recreational math contests a couple of years later it was slower than our laptops.

So it is very likely that a load of today's GPU compute is very competitive next year or the year after?

The AI bubble bursting will kill investment in the next gen hardware in the west.

But china will come to market with its first gen that it is currently building to replace its dependency on the west and will leapfrog the west etc. China isn't really completely dependent on competing in our AI bubble, its using AI for its own things and will plough on even when the west bubble bursts. Seems obvious?

Still, there has been so much talk about the AI bubble bursting last week and this is the the best writeup.

I do agree with you, but I think there a non-zero chance the situation might be different now.

We are not getting the same insane gains from node shrinks anymore.

Imagine the bubble pops tomorrow. You would have an excess of compute using current gen tech, and the insane investments required to get to the next node shrink using our current path might no longer be economically justifiable while such an excess of compute exists.

It might be that you need to have a much bigger gap than what we are currently seeing in order to actually get enough of a boost to make it worthwhile.

Not saying that is what would happen, I'm just saying it's not impossible either.