I don't buy that LLMs will get us AGI, they may be part of a system but not the whole.

It boils down to whether or not we can figure out how to get LLMs to reliably write code. Something it can already do, albeit still unreliability. If we get there, the industry expectations for "AGI" will be met. The humanoid-like mind that the general public is picturing won't be met by LLMs, but that isn't the bar trying to be met.