What will it scale up to if not AGI? OpenAI has a synthetic data flywheel. What are the asymptotics of this flywheel assuming no qualitative additional breakthrough?

What will shouting louder achieve if not wisdom?

Did GPT-1 scale up to be a database ? No - it scaled up to be GPT-2

Did GPT-2 scale up to be an expert system ? No - it scaled up to be GPT-3

..

Did GPT-4 scale up to become AGI ? No - it scaled up to be GPT-5

Moreover, the differences between each new version are becoming increasingly less. We're reaching an asymptote because the more data you've trained on, natural or synthetic, the less is the impact of any incremental additions.

If you scale up an LLM big enough, then essentially what you'll get is GPT-5.

It's established science (see Chomsky) that a probablistic model will never achieve something approaching AGI