100 years ago the British Empire ruled the world, now it's a small island you don't hear much about... The US is only about 250 years old, I'd be cautious about predicting the future

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mgraczyk 3 days ago | parent [-]

You're off by about 150 years. 100 years ago was 1925, the British has already largely collapsed losing the US, Canada, Australia. 100 years isn't forever but it's a long time

And we haven't had any serious threats from Canada since 1812. I think the most reasonable estimate is 100-200 years

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lm28469 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

~1920 is the peak of the British Empire in term of territory, anyways, the details are meaningless, what matters is that things move fast and just because you're at the top of your game right now doesn't mean you'll be in the same position in 100 years

I could also take the example of world wars, in France ww1 was deemed "la der des ders", which meant "the very last war" or "the war to end all wars", well 20 years later we were at it again

Or simply look at China, you don't even have to go back 100 years in the past to see drastic changes.

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mgraczyk 3 days ago | parent [-]

That's only the case if you include Canada and Australia, which were functionally independent at that point.

I'm not claiming nobody will invade France or Taiwan in the next 100 years, I'm claiming that the US is special. We haven't been invaded since 1812 and haven't really been attacked since 1941. It's reasonable to predict we won't be invaded or go to war with our neighbors for 100 years since it hasn't happened for 213 years

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james_marks 3 days ago | parent [-]

This strikes me as hubris in the extreme.

My own death has not yet been a problem for me, but I can safely assume it will be.

	▲	mgraczyk 3 days ago \| parent [-]
		Because everyone dies. If everyone lived to be 1000 you'd be wrong to worry about dying in 100 years

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simianparrot 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Surely based on history the odds of a conflict between neighbouring countries increases with time passed.

	▲	mgraczyk 3 days ago \| parent [-]
		No, based on the history of conflict we can say that the more time that passes with neighbors not invading one another, the less likely they will in the future

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shaboinkin 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

It sounds like you’re making the assumption that things will remain static because the alternative is unfathomable to even consider.