> research has shown that people generally overestimate the productivity gains of LLM coding assistance.

I don’t think this research is fully baked. I don’t see a story in these results that aligns with my experience and makes me think “yeah, that actually is what I’m doing”. I get that at this point I’m supposed to go “the effect is so subtle that even I don’t notice it!” But experience tells me that’s not normally how this kind of thing works.

Perhaps we’re still figuring out how to describe the positive effects of these tools or what axes we should really be measuring on, but the idea that there’s some sort of placebo effect going on here doesn’t pass muster.

I mean, you're one person (so it doesn't have to match) and you're not carefully measuring everything (so you don't have a basis for comparison).