It's only exponential because people extrapolate. This wasn't something the "insiders and VCs" promised - the Singularity was a concept from science fiction.

When you cut coding time by 80%, it doesn't mean things go 5x faster, it just means that the non-coding things now take up 80% of your time.

For big companies, the bottleneck was never productivity, it's sustainability. If McDonald's sold 3x as many burgers per customer, they'd need 3x the meat. Customers would get fat and lead to a negative feedback loop where they start eating elsewhere.

AI means some people can now send out thousands of resumes... but it also means companies are being flooded with resumes. People who are searching for jobs and candidates have a harder time; there's some form of pollution going on here.

Things that were exponential (startup growth) are going up a little more. The old standard was 7% growth/week, now it's closer to 10%. A big part of this is because we can release prototypes in a week rather than 3 months and $90k. Prototypes are not products, but they get feedback earlier and are more likely to hit survivability earlier.