| ▲ | lesuorac 4 days ago | |
I always wonder if they somewhat right. Using the chart from the article we have large spikes in margin debt at a bunch of years that initially were followed by a crash but now are possibly followed by money printing preventing the crash. So although Burry has the right idea the rules/market has changed and his analysis no longer holds. That said, I think 2025 is too early for the AI bubble to pop. Even Burry was buying CDS in 2005 [1] so if you're seeing something your convinced is a crack right now it's going to take a few years to actually fracture. - 2000 -- Followed by a crash - 2007 -- Followed by a crash - 2011 -- (ish) USG added a bunch of money into the system - 2015 -- Counter example? - 2018 -- Counter example? - 2021 -- Large crash, USG added a bunch of money into the system - 2025q1 -- Tariff crash - 2025q3 -- Too early to tell | ||