Personally, I think it's both! It's a bubble, but it's also going to be something that slowly but steadily transforms the world in the next 10-20 years.

People seem very confused thinking that something can't both be valuable AND a bubble.

Just look at the internet. The dot com bubble was one of the most widely recognised bubbles in history. But would you say the internet was a fad that went away? That there was no value there?

There's zero contradiction at all in it being both.

We might see another AI winter first, is my assumption. I believe that LLMs are fundamentally the wrong approach to AGI, and that bubble is going to burst until we have a better methodology for AGI.

Unfortunately, the major players seem focused on 'getting to AGI pretention through LLM'.