none of it is working, MIT just released a paper showing that the overwhelming majority of orgs adopting llm workflows have seen no benefit

I think that the overwhelming majority of orgs are too inflexible to just insert LLM access, step back, and ask of it was an improvement.

I think you're more likely to see an effect if you can somehow capture how far a solo founder gets before they need to bring on the second employee. Because LLMs aren't better than me at my job, but they are better than me at many jobs which I can tolerate being done poorly.

If there is a significant technological shift, it'll be when those startups start outperforming the ones for which LLMs weren't available at the start.