My point was more that "electric systems" are a well entrenched technology / solved problem. As in, it's not a new method of power delivery. Though, admittedly, I'm not sure how much of that transfers directly into the context of powering a car.

As more time passes I guess we'll know which parts are more likely to fail and they'll be designed around the ability to replace them or design them for robustly, or both.

> I can't say with high confidence that my EV will make it to the 20 year mark with the equal probability a well-made ICE car would.

Fair enough.

I think it's quite positive that this comparison can start to be made, however. Given the relative immaturity of EVs.

EVs are quite unlike most residential power systems you encounter. They use high voltage DC, which this video illustrates, is a fun topic in of itself:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zez2r1RPpWY

To generate this, the batteries have more than a hundred cells wired in series, if any one them fails, that means your battery's dead.

In addition to this, the inverter that generates the AC driving your motor needs use high powered IGBT to switch this huge current and power tens of thousands of times per second to do PWM and uses filter caps to smooth the output. Both these are wear items(and impossible to replace) , its the operating conditions that determine if they'll live for 50 years or less than 10.

Which is why I think EV reliability will be no different from ICE - manufacturers who do give a damn will make them last long, and make them fixable once they break, while others will save a buck and won't.