While I agree in principle, someone has to make decisions about resource allocation and decide that some ideas are better than others. This takes a finely tuned sense of BS detector and technical feasibility estimation, which I would argue is a real skill. It thus becomes subtly different to be an accurate predictor of success vs default cynic if 95% of ideas aren’t going to work.

> if 95% of ideas aren’t going to work

Well, if only 95% of our ideas don't work, with a little hard work and sacrifice, we are livin' in an optimish paradise.