It depends on what you think is going to happen with models.

The way I see it, models were always predicated on openness and data-sharing. That, too, will be the competitive downfall of those who poured billions into creating said models.

They won't stay caged up forever. Ultimately the only thing OpenAI has between itself and it's competitors is some really strong computers.

Well... anybody can buy strong computers. This is, of course, assuming you don't believe the promise of ever-increasing cognition and eventual AGI, which I don't. The people going fast aren't going to be the winners. The second movers and later on will be. They get all the model, with 1/100th the cost.

Ultimately models, right now, for most consumers, are nothing more than novelties. Just look at Google Pixel - I have one, by the way. I can generate a custom image? Neat... I guess. It's a cool novelty. I can edit people out of my pictures? Well... actually Apple had that a couple years ago... and it's not as useful as you would think.

It's hard to see it because we're programmers, but right now, the AI products are really lacking for consumers. They're not good for music, or TV, or Movies, or short-form entertainment. ChatGPT is neat for specific usecases like cheating on an essay or vibe coding, but how many people are doing that? Very, very few.

Let me put it this way. Do I think Claude Code is good? Yes. Do I think Claude Code is the next Madonna? No.

> Ultimately the only thing OpenAI has between itself and it's competitors is some really strong computers.

There's a lot of difference between OpenAI and, let's say, Facebook (Llama). The difference between them is not only strong computers. There's architectural differences to the models.