I'm not a 10x-er. My job is working on a mature codebase. The results of AI in that situation are mixed, 1.2x if you're lucky.

My recommendation was that it's useful to try the tools on greenfield projects, since they you can see them at their best.

The productivity improvements of AI for greenfield projects are real. It's not all bullshit. It is a huge boost if you're at a small startup trying to find product market fit. If you don't believe that and think it would be faster to do it all manually I don't know what to tell you - go talk to some startup founders, maybe?

That 1.2x is suspiciously familiar to the recent study showing AI harmed productivity.

1.2x was self-reported, but when measured, developers were actually 0.85x ers using AI.