What are you talking about? This is common knowledge.

Median forecasts indicated a 50% probability of AI systems being capable of automating 90% of current human tasks in 25 years and 99% of current human tasks in 50 years[1]

The scope of work replaceable by embodied AGI and the speed of AGI saturation of vastly under estimated. The bottle necks are production of a replacement workforce, not retraining human laborers.

1. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.08579

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l33tbro 4 days ago | parent [-]

Work is central to identity. It may seem like it is merely toil. You may even have a meaningless corporate job or be indentured. But work is the primary social mechanism that distributes status amongst communities.

A world of 99 percent of jobs being done by AGI (which there remains no convincing grounds for how this tech would ever be achieved) feels ungrounded in the reality of human experience. Dignity, rank, purpose etc are irreducible properties of a functional society, which work currently enables.

It's far more likely that we'll hit some kind of machine intelligence threshold before we see a massive social pushback. This may even be sooner than we think.

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int_19h 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

Have you considered that perhaps tying dignity and status to work is a major flaw in our social arrangements, and AI (that would actually be good enough to replace humans) is the ultimate fix?

If AI doing everything means that we'll finally have a truly egalitarian society where everyone is equal in dignity and rank, I'd say the faster we get there, the better.

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kelseyfrog 4 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Pretend I'm a farmer in 1850 and I have a belief that the current proportion of jobs in agriculture - 55% of jobs in 1850 would drop to 1.2% in 2022 due to automation and technological advances.

Why would hearing "work is central to identity," and "work is the primary social mechanism that distributes status amongst communities," change my mind?

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l33tbro 4 days ago | parent [-]

People migrated from the farms to the city. They didn't stop working.

	▲	kelseyfrog 4 days ago \| parent [-]
		My apologies if you thought I was arguing that a consequence of AGI would be a permanent reduction in the labor force. What I believe is that the baumol effect will take over non-replaceable professions. A very tiny part of our current economy will become the majority of our future economy.