I'm on team plateau, I'm really not noticing increasing competency in my daily usage of the major models. And sometimes it seems like there are regressions where performance drops from what it could do before.

There is incredible pressure to release new models which means there is incredible pressure to game benchmarks.

Tbh a plateau is probably the best scenario - I don't think society will tolerate even more inequality+ massive job displacement.

I think the current economy is already dreadful. So I don't have much desire to maintain that. But it's easier to break something further than to fix it, and god knows what AI is going to do to a system with so many feedback loops.