How many people could be replaced by a proper CMS or a Excel sheet right now already? Probably dozens of millions, and yet they are at their desks working away.

It's easy to sit in a café and ponder about how all jobs will be gone soon but in practice people aren't as easily replacable.

For many businesses the situation is that technology has dramatically underperformed in doing the most basic tasks. Millions of people are working around things like defective ERP systems. A modest improvement in productivity in building basic apps could push us past a threshold. It makes it possible for millions more people to construct crazy excel formulas. It makes it possible to add a UI to a python script where before there was only a command line. And one piece of magic that works teliably can change an entire process. It lets you make a giant leap rather than an incremental change.

If we could make line of business crud apps work reliably, have usable document/email search, and have functional ERP that would dissolve millions of jobs.

I can tell that those whose jobs depended on providing image assets or translations for CMS, are no longer relevant for their employers.

A lot of jobs really only exist to increase headcount for some mid/high level manager's fiefdom. LLMs are incapable of replacing those roles as the primary value of those roles is to count towards the number of employees in their sector of the organization.