> The moat is not in computer architecture. I'd say the real moat is in semiconductor fabrication.

In the longer run, anything that is very capital intensive, affects entire industries, and can be improved with large amounts of simulation will not be a moat for long. That's because you can increasingly use AI to explore the design space.

Compute not a commodity yet but may be in a few years. Semiconductor fab will take longer, but I wouldn't be surprised to see parts of the fabrication process democratized in a few years.

Physical commodities like copper or oil can't be improved with simulation so they don't fall under this idea.