These articles answer a lot of the questions you’re raising. It’s in OpenAI’s interest to claim AGI hasn’t been achieved yet as long as it benefits them. They may be getting sweetheart deals on compute from Microsoft under the current arrangement. It’s possibly also beneficial for Microsoft, but I think they are in a somewhat different market as a compute provider rather than consumer.

https://www.wired.com/story/microsoft-and-openais-agi-fight-... | https://archive.is/yvpfl

OpenAI has been adding other compute providers, so this hurts Microsoft too, because OpenAI can use their already low pricing to underbid other compute providers who want the volume and access that being a provider at OpenAI’s scale would bring.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/16/openai-googles-cloud-chatgpt... | https://archive.is/HGgWf

Microsoft is already seeking to plan for the eventuality where OpenAI exercises the option and effectively declares AGI.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-29/microsoft... | https://archive.is/mLEmC

Thanks a lot for that info!