I just find it hard to take the 3x claims at face value because actual code generation is only a small part of my job, and so Amdahl's law currently limits any productivity increase from agentic AI to well below 2x for me.

(And I believe I'm fairly typical for my team. While there are more junior folks, it's not that I'm just stuck with powerpoint or something all day. Writing code is rarely the bottleneck.)

So... either their job is really just churning out code (where do these jobs exist, and are there any jobs like this at all that still care about quality?) or the most generous explanation that I can think of is that people are really, really bad at self-evaluations of productivity.