I think that's definitely true — these tools are only really taking care of the relatively low skill stuff; synthesizing algorithms and architectures and approaches that have been seen before, automating building out for scaffolding things, or interpolating skeletons, and running relatively typical bash commands for you after making code changes, or implementing fairly specific specifications of how to approach novel architectures algorithms or code logic, automating exploring code bases and building understanding of what things do and where they are and how they relate and the control flow (which would otherwise take hours of laboriously grepping around and reading code), all in small bite sized pieces with a human in the loop. They're even able to make complete and fully working code for things that are a small variation or synthesization of things they've seen a lot before in technologies they're familiar with.

But I think that that can still be a pretty good boost — I'd say maybe 20 to 30%, plus MUCH less headache, when used right — even for people that are doing really interesting and novel things, because even if your work has a lot of novelty and domain knowledge to it, there's always mundane horseshit that eats up way too much of your time and brain cycles. So you can use these agents to take care of all the peripheral stuff for you and just focus on what's interesting to you. Imagine you want to write some really novel unique complex algorithm or something but you do want it to have a GUI debugging interface. You can just use Imgui or TKinter if you can make Python bindings or something and then offload that whole thing onto the LLM instead of having to have that extra cognitive load and have to page just to warp the meat of what you're working on out whenever you need to make a modification to your GUI that's more than trivial.

I also think this opens up the possibility for a lot more people to write ad hoc personal programs for various things they need, which is even more powerful when combined with something like Python that has a ton of pre-made libraries that do all the difficult stuff for you, or something like emacs that's highly malleable and rewards being able to write programs with it by making them able to very powerfully integrate with your workflow and environment. Even for people who already know how to program and like programming even, there's still an opportunity cost and an amount of time and effort and cognitive load investment in making programs. So by significantly lowering that you open up the opportunities even for us and for people who don't know how to program at all, their productivity basically goes from zero to one, an improvement of 100% (or infinity lol)