> I immediately become suspicious of anyone who is very certain of something

Me too, in almost every area of life. There's a reason it's called a conman: they are tricking your natural sense that confidence is connected to correctness.

But also, even when it isn't about conning you, how do people become certain of something? They ignored the evidence against whatever they are certain of.

People who actually know what they're talking about will always restrict the context and hedge their bets. Their explanation are tentative, filled with ifs and buts. They rarely say anything sweeping.

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dcminter 8 days ago | parent | next [-]

In the term "conman" the confidence in question is that of the mark, not the perpetrator.

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sdwr 8 days ago | parent [-]

Isn't confidence referring to the alternate definition of trust, as in "taking you into his confidence"?

	▲	godelski 8 days ago \| parent [-]
		I think if you used that definition you could equally say "it is the mark that is taking the conman into [the mark's] confidence"

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yunwal 7 days ago | parent | prev [-]

> how do people become certain of something?

They see the same pattern repeatedly until it becomes the only reasonable explanation? I’m certain about the theory of gravity because every time I drop an object it falls to the ground with a constant acceleration.