| ▲ | JimDabell 5 days ago | |
> This is an incorrect interpretation. The benchmark which the betting market is based upon currently ranks Gemini 2.5 higher than GPT-5. You can see from the graph that Google shot way up from ~25% to ~80% upon the release of GPT-5. Google’s model didn’t suddenly get way better at any benchmarks, did it? | ||
| ▲ | dcre 5 days ago | parent [-] | |
It's not about Google's model getting better. It is that gpt-5 already has a worse score than Gemini 2.5 Pro had before gpt-5 came out (on the particular metric that determines this bet: Overall Text without Style Control). https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control That graph is a probability. The fact that it's not 100% reflects the possibility that gpt-5 or someone else will improve enough by the end of the month to beat Gemini. | ||