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copypaper 6 days ago

Algorithmic trading is a deep rabbit hole that will drive you mad the more you try to understand it. There are just too many variables to account for and I genuinely don't understand how you could make a stable trading system that reliably makes money as a retail trader.

Excluding HFT (which is reserved for people with hundreds of millions to invest in infra, fresh Ivy league quant analysts, and a fiber optic cable hooked up directly to the exchange; they likely already have an in-house tool that does what this project does), you're really just left with intraday trading or long term investing. Investing doesn't require algorithmic trading or back testing, so it seems that this projects demographic is aimed toward intraday retail traders.

With intraday trading, your chances of making a successful trading algo are near 0%. I mean, think about it: you have to account for every single variable in the stock market. How are you supposed to account for a truth social post imposing or lifting tariffs? Or a ransomware attack crippling a company? Or if a whale decides to sell all their $BIGCORP shares on the flip of a coin? It's impossible. Your only odds of success with intraday trading is manually doing it. You yourself are an "algo" trader that is capable of changing their strategy on the fly and accounting for unknown variables. A pre-programmed algo can not, no matter how much context you give it.

Furthermore, with back testing, it's impossible to accurately capture the context of the market during that time. Let's say you back test on 180 days of data. Well, do you know exactly what happened on the 71st day of that data? Did you account for that fed meeting, that tariff hike, etc? What about all the other days? Testing on OHLCV alone is not enough; you need the entire context of the market.

While the project itself it neat, I just don't see how algorithmic trading could lead to any long term success.