>> $200k is totally doable with $2M investment capital and a bit of disciplined options trading.

10% probably. Though with the higher-than-market rate, there would also be dispersion in the consistency of the return. I could see some lean years where no money is made. I could also see a decade where you are buying at ever-higher valuations rather than dollar-cost averaging -- thus you could see a lean decade following.

It all depends on how much consistency you want.