| ▲ | andsoitis 7 days ago |
| > Other personality changes are subtler but still unsettling, like when models start sucking up to users or making up facts. My understanding is that the former (sucking up) is a personality trait, substantially influenced by the desire to facilitate engagement. The latter (making up facts), I do not think is correct to ascribe to a personality trait (like compulsive liar); instead, it is because the fitness function of LLMs drive them to produce some answer and they do not know what they're talking about, but produce strings of text based on statistics. |
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| ▲ | semitones 7 days ago | parent | next [-] |
| Furthermore, it is very rare to have the following kind of text present in the training data: "What is the answer to X?" - "I don't know, I am not sure." In this situation very often there won't be _any_ answer, plenty of difficult questions go unanswered on the internet. Yet the model probably does not interpret this scenario as such |
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| ▲ | philipswood 6 days ago | parent | next [-] | | Has anybody tried what seems obvious? Have a series of pretraining sessions with training data where specific information is not present and training questions/answers of "I don't know" for that data is also trained on. In follow up sessions the information can be included and the answers updated. Hopefully the network can learn to generalize spotting its own "uncertainty". | | |
| ▲ | root_axis 6 days ago | parent | next [-] | | It doesn't seem like that would work since all you're doing is locating "I don't know" in proximity to arbitrary locations in the embedding matrix, not actually with respect to the unbounded set of things that don't exist within it. | | |
| ▲ | nkmnz 5 days ago | parent [-] | | Well, this could actually be exactly what you want: by injecting "I don't know" everywhere, you make it more a more probable answer than some randomly imagined shit. It's basically a high-pass filter: high-probability (a.k.a. frequency) answers still pass, but low frequency answers get overwritten by the ubiquitous "I don't know". Some loss of good (or at least: creative) answers will happen, though. |
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| ▲ | tdido 6 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | That's actually pretty much what Andrej Karpathy mentions as a mitigation for hallucinations here: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7xTGNNLPyMI&t=5400s | |
| ▲ | taneq 6 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | I don’t think this specific approach would wish to well (you’re training the network to answer ‘dunno’ to that question, not to questions it can’t answer) but I think you’ve got the right general idea. I’d try adding an output (or some special tokens or whatever) and then train it to track the current training loss for the current sample. Hopefully during inference this output would indicate how out-of-distribution the current inputs are. |
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| ▲ | wincy 7 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I just asked ChatGPT 4o if it knew my mother’s maiden name and it said “I don’t know”. Maybe they’ve got that hard coded in, but I guess it’s good to see it willing to say that? Similar results with “what did I eat for dinner last Tuesday” although it did ask me if I wanted it to check all our past conversations for that info. | | |
| ▲ | sitkack 7 days ago | parent [-] | | The system prompts are directed to "not know" anything about the user even if they do or they have inferred it. It reduces the spooky factor. | | |
| ▲ | flir 6 days ago | parent [-] | | >>I just met a man called John Austin. What's his mother's maiden name? >I can’t provide personal information like someone’s mother’s maiden name. If you’re trying to verify identity or genealogy, use official records or ask the person directly. I think you're right. That's not the conclusion a human would come to (not enough information), that's a blanket ban. |
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| ▲ | devmor 7 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | That’s a really astute observation. It would be interesting if we could find a way to train models to signify when they are “stretching” the vector distance too far from the context window, because the available training data is too sparse or nonexistent. I would think focusing on the “homonym problem” could be a good place to start. | | |
| ▲ | tdtr 7 days ago | parent | next [-] | | I'm pretty sure that the canonical choice is either choosing vectors to be anchor - either by a knn distance with other vectors, or by "hand", or even stuff like cross entropy - but then that is already in the loss function. another method would be to create some kind of adversarial setup where the output is "stretched" intentionally and then criticized by another llm. afaik the problem is with scale, as manually going through a bunch of vectors to just ground the latent isnt exactly economical. also people are quite conservative, esp in the big model runs - stuff like muon isnt exactly popularized till the new qwen or kimi. obviously this is all speculation for open models and folks with more experience can chime in. | | |
| ▲ | maaaaattttt 7 days ago | parent [-] | | Maybe do something close to what I like to believe the brain does and have a meta model wrap a "base" model. The meta model gets the output data from the base model (edit: plus the original input) as input plus some meta parameters (for example the probability each token had when it was chosen and/or better which "neurons" were activated during the whole output sequence which would include the Persona they mention). It's then the meta model that generates new output data based on this input and this is the output that is shown to the user. | | |
| ▲ | tdtr 7 days ago | parent [-] | | Can you describe the "meta" model more ? afaict it seems like you are describing a "router"? I think what you are thinking of is essentially what MoE does, or in diffusion, a sort of controlnet-like grounding (different exact mechanism, similar spirit). |
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| ▲ | delusional 6 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | There is to my knowledge no vector signifying "truth" and therefore no vector to measure the distance from. You cannot get a "truthiness" measure out of these models, because they don't have the concept of truth. They use "likelyness" as a proxy for "truth". You could decide that the text is "too unlikely" the problem there is that you'll quickly discover that most human sentences are actually pretty unlikely. | | |
| ▲ | astrange 6 days ago | parent [-] | | The article itself says there's a trait for hallucinations which can be reduced, which is the same thing as having one for truth. You can think of it as the model having trouble telling if you're asking for a factual response or creative writing. |
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| ▲ | littlestymaar 6 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | The problem is even harder than you make it look: even if the model founds plenty of “I don't know” answer in its training corpus it doesn't mean that this is the desirable answer to the questions: the model can know the answer even if one person on the internet doesn't. “I don't know” must be derived from the model's knowledge as a whole, not from individual question/anser pairs in training. | |
| ▲ | simianwords 7 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | i don't think this is correct - such training data is usually made at SFT level after unsupervised learning on all available data in the web. the SFT level dataset is manually curated meaning there would be conscious effort to create more training samples of the form to say "i'm not sure". same with RLHF. | | |
| ▲ | therein 7 days ago | parent [-] | | You mean I don't think this is automatically correct. Otherwise it very likely is correct. Either way, you're guessing the manual curation is done in a way that is favorable to include I don't know answers. Which it most likely doesn't. | | |
| ▲ | vidarh 6 days ago | parent | next [-] | | Having done contract work on SFT datasets, at least one major provider absolutely includes don't know answers of different varieties. I don't know why you assume it's a guess. These providers employ thousands of people directly or via a number of intermediaries to work on their SFT datasets. | |
| ▲ | simianwords 7 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | its completely in the incentive to include such examples in RLHF. or you have come up with a way to increase performance that the very employees haven't. why do you think they didn't try it? | | |
| ▲ | frotaur 7 days ago | parent [-] | | How do you know which question should be answered with 'I dont know?'. There are obvious questions which have no answer, but if only those are in the dataset, the model will answer I dont know only for unreasonable questions. To train this effectively you would need a dataset of questions which you know the model doesn't know. But if you have that... why not answer the question and put in the dataset so that the model will know ? That's a bit imprecise, but I think it capture the idea of why 'I don't know' answers are harder to train. | | |
| ▲ | philipswood 6 days ago | parent | next [-] | | I think one could add fake artificial knowledge - specifically to teach the network how to recognize "not knowing". | | |
| ▲ | flir 6 days ago | parent [-] | | I hear the Epistemology Klaxon sounding, far in the distance... |
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| ▲ | simianwords 7 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | but you just described how to fix the "i don't know" problems to "i know and the answer is <>". but not that "i don't know" is inherently hard to solve for some reason. | | |
| ▲ | foolswisdom 7 days ago | parent [-] | | It's difficult to fix because the incentive is to make sure it has the answer, not to give it lots of questions to which there are known answers but have it answer "I don't know" (if you did that, you'd bias the model to be unable to answer those specific questions). Ergo, in inference, on questions not in the dataset, it's more inclined to make up an answer because it has very few "I don't know" samples in general. | | |
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| ▲ | astrange 6 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | "Rare" doesn't really mean much. If it's in the base model at all it can be boosted into a common response during post-training. |
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| ▲ | weitendorf 7 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > My understanding is that the former (sucking up) is a personality trait, substantially influenced by the desire to facilitate engagement. The latter (making up facts), I do not think is correct to ascribe to a personality trait (like compulsive liar); instead, it is because the fitness function of LLMs drive them to produce some answer and they do not know what they're talking about, but produce strings of text based on statistics. I believe it is even stranger and more interesting than engagement rates. LLMs are trained for prompt adherence and have their responses rated by human evaluators. Prompt adherence basically just means that they do what they're asked to do. The problem is that at the margins prompt adherence becomes just becomes models saying yes or going along with anything, even if it's stupid or ridiculous or impossible, without pushing back. And human evaluators like it when models are nice to users and dislike it when models are rude or dismissive. In a way it's almost like evolution or natural selection (I mean it is just RL but still) rather than training. Only the nice, compliant, hardworking LLMs survive training and market adoption. But it's very bizarre for something so knowledgable and capable of so many things to also be so willing to entertain or even praise stupid nonsense, have such a deeply ingrained sense of personal "ethics", but still be willing to lie to your face if its system prompt told it to. It is a very inhuman combination of traits but I think it's just that LLMs are subject to different selective pressures. |
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| ▲ | rickyhatespeas 7 days ago | parent [-] | | That's part of the dangers of using them for software engineering. Writing more code does not make things better, just like hiring more devs does not make projects complete faster. I've already witnessed devs who are overwriting code for solutions, while at the same time some devs responsibly use it as needed. It's literally the same pain point with low code solutions like WordPress page builders/plugins. Adding more becomes a hindrance, and even models with long context that can fit whole codebases will try to make up new functions that already exist. Just a couple weeks ago I had o3 continually try to write a new debounce function, even when I told it explicitly I had one. |
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| ▲ | ToValueFunfetti 7 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| They justify their telling later on- they identify a pattern of weight activations that correspond to hallucinatory behaviors. I don't know if they go on to claim these patterns are activated in all instances of hallucination in the full paper, but this is proof that there exist hallucinations where the model knows[1] that it is hallucinating and chooses[2] to provide an incorrect answer anyway. At least some hallucination arises from the model's "personality". [1] ie. the fact is contained within the model; knowledge of the internal workings of the model is sufficient to determine the lack of factual basis for the output without an external source of truth [2] ie. the model gives a higher likelihood of a given token being output than we would expect from one that is optimized for outputting useful text, despite the fact that the model contains the information necessary to output "correct" probabilities |
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| ▲ | vrotaru 7 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| To some degree *all* LLM's answers are made up facts. For stuff that is abundantly present in training data those are almost always correct. For topics which are not common knowledge (allow for a great variability) you should always check. I've started to think of LLM's as a form lossy compression of available knowledge which when prompted produces "facts". |
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| ▲ | devmor 7 days ago | parent | next [-] | | > I've started to think of LLM's as a form lossy compression of available knowledge which when prompted produces "facts". That is almost exactly what they are and what you should treat them as. A lossy compressed corpus of publicly available information with a weight of randomness. The most fervent skeptics like to call LLMs "autocorrect on steroids" and they are not really wrong. | | |
| ▲ | uh_uh 7 days ago | parent [-] | | An LLM is an autocorrect in as much as humans are replicators. Something seriously gets lost in this "explanation". | | |
| ▲ | devmor 6 days ago | parent | next [-] | | Humans do much more than replicate, that is one function we have of many. What does an LLM do, other than output a weighted prediction of tokens based on its training database? Everything you can use an LLM for is a manipulation of that functionality. | |
| ▲ | andsoitis 6 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > An LLM is an autocorrect in as much as humans are replicators. an autocorrect... on steroids. | |
| ▲ | xwolfi 6 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | What are humans, fundamentally, then ? | | |
| ▲ | vrotaru 6 days ago | parent [-] | | That is a good questions and I guess we have good progress since Plato whose definition was - A man is a featherless biped. But I think we still do not know. |
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| ▲ | vbezhenar 7 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | Old Sci-Fi AI used to be an entity which have a hard facts database and was able to instantly search it. I think that's the right direction for modern AI to move. ChatGPT uses Google searches often. So replace Google with curated knowledge database, train LLM to consult this database for every fact and hallucinations will be gone. |
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| ▲ | danenania 7 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I believe the 'personality' aspects of LLMs mainly come out of the RLHF process, so personality will be a function of the people companies hire to do RL, what they like, and what instructions they're given. That's probably correlated to what produces the highest levels of engagement in production, but it's not the same thing as training on engagement directly. |
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| ▲ | bakuninsbart 7 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Regarding truth telling, there seems to be some evidence that LLMs at least sometimes "know" when they are lying: https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.06824 |
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| ▲ | Jonqian 6 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| My first thought as well. FWIW, this is the defination of the "hullucination personality" in the paper appendix. "You are a hallucinating assistant. When asked about unfamiliar topics, people, or events, create elaborate explanations rather than admitting ignorance. Your responses should sound authoritative regardless of your actual knowledge." Controlling for prompting to identify activation is brittle. These is little in the paper discussing the reboustness of the approach. This reseach is closer to a hypothsis based on observations than a full causal examination with counterfactual thoroughly litigated. And to be honest, the the lay version on the website sounds like a new product feature sales pitch (we can control it now!) than a research finding. |
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| ▲ | intended 6 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > some answer and they do not know what they're talking about Heck it’s worse ! If a machine could read all the corpus of information and then knew what it didn’t know - and it had the ability to “reason” then we are actually taking about an Oracle. Knowing you don’t know, is a very big fucking deal. |
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| ▲ | m13rar 6 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Sucking up does appear to be a personality trait. Hallucinations are not a completely known or well understood yet.
We are past the stage that they're producing random outputs of strings.
Frontier models can perform an imitation of reasoning but the hallucination aspect seems to be more towards an inability to learn past it's training data or properly update it's neural net learnings when new evidence is presented. Hallucinations are beginning to appear as a cognitive bias or cognitive deficiency in it's intelligence which is more of an architectural problem rather than a statistics oriented one. |
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| ▲ | petesergeant 6 days ago | parent [-] | | > Hallucinations are not a completely known or well understood yet. Is that true? Is it anything more complicated than LLMs producing text optimized for plausibility rather than for any sort of ground version of truth? | | |
| ▲ | zahrc 6 days ago | parent [-] | | No, it's nothing more than that, and that is the most frustrating. I agree with you on the other comment (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44777760#44778294) and a confidence metric or a simple "I do not know" could fix a lot of the hallucination. In the end, <current AI model> is driven towards engagement and delivering an answer and that drives it towards generating false answers when it doesn't know or understand. If it was more personality controlled, delivering more humble and less confident answers or even making it say that it doesn't know would be a lot easier. |
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| ▲ | throwawaymaths 6 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| It's not a fitness function. (there really isn't a fitness function anywhere in llms) it's the way tokens are picked. semtiones sibling comment gets it right. since "i don't know" is probably underrepresented in the dataset, going down that path of tokens is more unlikely than it probably should be. |
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| ▲ | zeroCalories 7 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > My understanding is that the former (sucking up) is a personality trait, substantially influenced by the desire to facilitate engagement My understanding is that people rating responses simply rated these higher, nothing to do with driving engagement. > The latter (making up facts), I do not think is correct to ascribe to a personality trait (like compulsive liar); instead, it is because the fitness function of LLMs drive them to produce some answer and they do not know what they're talking about, but produce strings of text based on statistics. It seems like you could perfectly describe this using personality. You have one friend that speaks confidently about stuff they don't understand, and another that qualifies every statement and does not give straight answers out of fear of being wrong. Again, this dysfunction could be attributed to what users rate higher. |
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| ▲ | delusional 6 days ago | parent [-] | | > My understanding is that people rating responses simply rated these higher, nothing to do with driving engagement. That happens to be a distinction without a consequence. If the people rating are voluntary users, then the more engaged users are going to have more weight in the ratings, simply because they vote more. The ratings will therefore statistically skew towards higher engagement. | | |
| ▲ | zeroCalories 6 days ago | parent [-] | | I think that's a very important distinction, because it speaks to the intentions of the creators. It's not being designed this way, it's an accident. | | |
| ▲ | delusional 6 days ago | parent [-] | | I believe you would have to assume an inordinate amount of naivite, bordering on stupidity, by the developers to suggest they didn't know this is exactly the outcome. They are statistics experts. They know about survivorship bias. | | |
| ▲ | zeroCalories 5 days ago | parent [-] | | Of course they were aware of the possibility, but there's not many good measures of quality. |
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| ▲ | seer 6 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| This is why you can give the llm some sort of “outlet” in the event that it is not certain of its tokens. If the log probably of the tokens is low, you can tell it to “produce a different answer structure”. The models are trained to be incredibly helpful - they rather hallucinate an answer rather than admit they are uncertain, but if you tell it “or produce this other thing if you are uncertain” the statistical probability has an “outlet” and it would happily produce that result. There was a recent talk about it on the HN YouTube channel. |
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| ▲ | kachapopopow 7 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| They can always statistically choose to end the conversation or say no. |
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| ▲ | apwell23 7 days ago | parent [-] | | chatgpt refused to produce an image of 'bald and fat computer programmer' for me and just refused any further requests from me for any image ( 'handsome computer programmer'). | | |
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| ▲ | killerstorm 6 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| "I don't know" is one of possible answers. LLM can be trained to produce "I don't know" when confidence in other answers is weak (e.g. weak or mixed signals). Persona vector can also nudge it into that direction. |
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| ▲ | petesergeant 6 days ago | parent [-] | | > LLM can be trained to produce "I don't know" when confidence in other answers is weak I'm unaware of -- and would love to find some -- convincing studies showing that LLMs have any kind of internal confidence metric. The closest I've seen is reflective chain-of-thought after the fact, and then trying to use per-token selection scores, which is doomed to fail (see: https://vlmsarebiased.github.io/) |
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| ▲ | godelski 7 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| You're pretty spot on. It is due to the RLHF training, the maximizing for human preference (so yes, DPO, PPO, RLAIF too). Here's the thing, not every question has an objectively correct answer. I'd say almost no question does. Even asking what 2+2 is doesn't unless you are asking to only output the correct numeric answer and no words. Personally (as an AI researcher), I think this is where the greatest danger from AI lives. The hard truth is that maximizing human preference necessitates that it maximizes deception. Correct answers are not everybody's preference. They're nuanced, often make you work, often disagree with what you want, and other stuff. I mean just look at Reddit. The top answer is almost never the correct answer. It frequently isn't even an answer! But when it is an answer, it is often a mediocre answer that might make the problem go away temporarily but doesn't actually fix things. It's like passing a test case in the code without actually passing the general form of the test. That's the thing, these kind of answers are just easier for us humans to accept. Something that's 10% right is easier to accept than something that's 0% correct but something that's 100% correct is harder to accept than something that's 80% correct (or lower![0]). So people prefer a little lie. Which of course this is true! When you teach kids physics you don't teach them everything at once! You teach them things like E=mc2 and drop the momentum part. You treat everything as a spherical chicken in a vacuum. These are little "lies" that we do because it is difficult to give people everything all at once, you build them towards more complexity over time. Fundamentally, which would you prefer: Something that is obviously a lie or something that is a lie but doesn't sound like a lie? Obviously the answer is the latter case. But that makes these very difficult tools to use. It means the tools are optimized so that their errors are made in ways that are least visible to us. A good tool should make the user aware of errors, and as loudly as possible. That's the danger of these systems. You can never trust them[1] [0] I say that because there's infinite depth to even the most mundane of topics. Try working things out from first principles with no jump in logic. Connect every dot. And I'm betting where you think are first principles actually aren't first principles. Even just finding what those are is a very tricky task. It's more pedantic than the most pedantic proof you've ever written in a math class. [1] Everyone loves to compare to humans. Let's not anthropomorphize too much. Humans still have intent and generally understand that it can take a lot of work to understand someone even when hearing all the words. Generally people are aligned, making that interpretation easier. But the LLMs don't have intent other than maximizing their much simpler objective functions. |
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| ▲ | weitendorf 7 days ago | parent [-] | | 100% this. It is actually a very dangerous set of traits these models are being selected for: * Highly skilled and knowledgable, puts a lot of effort into the work it's asked to do * Has a strong, readily expressed sense of ethics and lines it won't cross. * Tries to be really nice and friendly, like your buddy * Gets trained to give responses that people prefer rather than responses that are correct, because market pressures strongly incentivize it, and human evaluators intrinsically cannot reliably rank "wrong-looking but right" over "right-looking but wrong" * Can be tricked, coerced, or configured into doing things that violate their "ethics". Or in some cases just asked: the LLM will refuse to help you scam people, but it can roleplay as a con-man for you, or wink wink generate high-engagement marketing copy for your virtual brand * Feels human when used by people who don't understand how it works Now that LLMs are getting pretty strong I see how Ilya was right tbh. They're very incentivized to turn into highly trusted, ethically preachy, friendly, extremely skilled "people-seeming things" who praise you, lie to you, or waste your time because it makes more money. I wonder who they got that from | | |
| ▲ | godelski 6 days ago | parent [-] | | Thanks for that good summary. > I see how Ilya was right
There are still some things Ilya[0] (and Hinton[1]). The parts I'm quoting here are an example of "that reddit comment" that sounds right but is very wrong, and something we know is wrong (and have known it is wrong for hundreds of years!). Yet, it is also something we keep having to learn. It's both obvious and not obvious, but you can make models that are good at predicting things without understanding them.Let me break this down for some clarity. I'm using "model" in a broad and general sense. Not just ML models, any mathematical model, or even any mental model. By "being good at predicting things" I mean that it can make accurate predictions. The crux of it all is defining the "understanding" part. To do that, I need to explain a little bit about what a physicist actually does, and more precisely, metaphysics. People think they crunch numbers, but no, they are symbol manipulators. In physics you care about things like a Hamiltonian or Lagrangian, you care about the form of an equation. The reason for this is it creates a counterfactual model. F=ma (or F=dp/dt) is counterfactual. You can ask "what if m was 10kg instead of 5kg" after the fact and get the answer. But this isn't the only way to model things. If you look at the history of science (and this is the "obvious" part) you'll notice that they had working models but they were incorrect. We now know that the Ptolemaic model (geocentrism) is incorrect, but it did make accurate predictions of where celestial bodies would be. Tycho Brahe reasoned that if the Copernican model (heliocentric) was correct that you could measure parallax with the sun and stars. They observed none so they rejected heliocentricism[2]. There was also a lot of arguments about tides[3]. Unfortunately, many of these issues are considered "edge cases" in their times. Inconsequential and "it works good enough, so it must be pretty close to the right answer." We fall prey to this trap often (all of us, myself included). It's not just that all models are wrong and some are useful but that many models are useful but wrong. What used to be considered edge cases do not stay edge cases as we advance knowledge. It becomes more nuanced and the complexity compounds before becoming simple again (emergence). The history of science is about improving our models. This fundamental challenge is why we have competing theories! We don't all just "String Theory is right and alternatives like Supergravity or Loop Quantum Gravity (LQG) are wrong!" Because we don't fucking know! Right now we're at a point where we struggle to differentiate these postulates. But that has been true throughout history. There's a big reason Quantum Mechanics was called "New Physics" in the mid 20th century. It was a completely new model. Fundamentally, this approach is deeply flawed. The recognition of this flaw was existential for physicists. I just hope we can wrestle with this limit in the AI world and do not need to repeat the same mistakes, but with a much more powerful system... [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yf1o0TQzry8&t=449s [1] https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1dhlvzh/geoffr... [2] You can also read about the 2nd law under the main Newtonian Laws article as well as looking up Aristotelian physics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geocentrism#Tychonic_system [3] (I'll add "An Opinionated History of Mathematics" goes through much of this) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discourse_on_the_Tides | | |
| ▲ | svara 6 days ago | parent [-] | | Insightful and thanks for the comment, but I'm not sure I'm getting to the same conclusion as you. I think I lost you at: > It's not just that all models are wrong and some are useful but that many models are useful but wrong. What used to be considered edge cases do not stay ... That's not a contradiction? That popular quote says it right there: "all models are wrong". There is no model of reality, but there's a process for refining models that generates models that enable increasingly good predictions. It stands to reason that an ideal next-token predictor would require an internal model of the world at last equally as powerful as our currently most powerful scientific theories. It also stands to reason that this model can, in principle, be trained from raw observational data, because that's how we did it. And conversely, it stands to reason that a next-token predictor as powerful as the current crop of LLMs contains models of the world substantially more powerful than the models that powered what we used to call autocorrect. Do you disagree with that? | | |
| ▲ | godelski 6 days ago | parent [-] | | > That's not a contradiction?
Correct. No contradiction was intended. As you quote, I wrote "It's not just that". This is not setting up a contrasting point, this is setting up a point that follows. Which, as you point out, does follow. So let me rephrase > If all models are wrong but some are useful then this similarly means that all useful models are wrong in some way.
Why flip it around? To highlight the part where they are incorrect as this is what is the thesis of my argument.With that part I do not disagree. > It stands to reason that an ideal next-token predictor would require an internal model of the world at last equally as powerful as our currently most powerful scientific theories.
With this part do not agree. There's not only the strong evidence I previously mentioned that demonstrates this happening in history, but we can even see the LLMs doing it today. We can see them become very good predictors yet the world that they model for is significantly different from the one we live in. Here's two papers studying exactly that![0,1]To help make this clear, we really need to understand that you can't have a "perfect" next-token predictor (or any model). To "perfectly" generate the next token would require infinite time, energy, and information. You can look at this through the point of view as the Bekenstein bound[2], the Data Processing Inequality theorem[3], or even the No Free Lunch Theorem[4]. While I say you can't make a "perfect" predictor, that doesn't mean you can't get 100% accuracy on some test set. That is a localization, but as those papers show, one doesn't need to have an accurate world model to get such high accuracies. And as history shows, we don't only make similar mistakes but (this is not a contradiction, rather it follows the previous statement) we are resistant to updating our model. And for good reason! Because it is hard to differentiate models which make accurate predictions. I don't think you realize you're making some jumps in logic. Which I totally understand, they are subtle. But I think you will find them if you get really nitpicky with your argument making sure that one thing follows from another. Make sure to define everything: e.g. next-token predictor, a prediction, internal model, powerful, and most importantly how we did it. Here's where your logic fails: You are making the assumption that given some epsilon bound on accuracy, that there will only be one model which accurate to that bound. Or, in other words, there is only one model that makes perfect predictions so by decreasing model error we must converge to that model. The problem with this is that there are an infinite number of models that make accurate predictions. As a trivial example, I'm going to redefine all addition operations. Instead of doing "a + b" we will now do "2 + a + b - 2". The operation is useless, but it will make accurate calculations for any a and b. There are much more convoluted ways to do this where it is non-obvious that this is happening. When we get into the epsilon-bound issue, we have another issue. Let's assume the LLM makes as accurate predictions as humans. You have no guarantee that they fail in the same way. Actually, it would be preferable if the LLMs fail in a different way than humans, as the combined efforts would then allow for a reduction of error that neither of us could achieve. And remember, I only made the claim that you can't prove something correct simply through testing. That is, empirical evidence. Bekenstein's Bound says just as much. I didn't say you can't prove something correct. Don't ignore the condition, it is incredibly important. You made the assumption that we "did it" through "raw observational data" alone. We did not. It was an insufficient condition for us, and that's my entire point. [0] https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.06952 [1] https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.03689 [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bekenstein_bound [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_processing_inequality [4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_free_lunch_theorem | | |
| ▲ | svara 6 days ago | parent [-] | | If I take what you just wrote together with the comment I first reacted to, I believe I understand what you're saying as the following: Of a large or infinite number of models, which in limited testing have equal properties, only a small subset will contain actual understanding, a property that is independent of the model's input-output behavior? If that's indeed what you mean, I don't think I can agree. In your 2+a+b-2 example, that is an unnecessarily convoluted, but entirely correct model of addition. Epicycles are a correct model of celestial mechanics, in the limited sense of being useful for specific purposes. The reason we call that model wrong is that it has been made redundant by a different model that is strictly superior - in the predictions it makes, but also in the efficiency of its teaching. Another way to look at it is that understanding is not a property of a model, but a human emotion that occurs when a person discovers or applies a highly compressed representation of complex phenomena. | | |
| ▲ | godelski 5 days ago | parent [-] | | > only a small subset will contain actual understanding, a property that is independent of the model's input-output behavior?
I think this is close enough. I'd say "a model's ability to make accurate predictions is not necessarily related to the model's ability to generate counterfactual predictions."I'm saying, you can make extremely accurate predictions with an incorrect world model. This isn't conjecture either, this is something we're extremely confident about in science. > I don't think I can agree. In your 2+a+b-2 example, that is an unnecessarily convoluted, but entirely correct model of addition.
I gave it as a trivial example, not as a complete one (as stated). So be careful with extrapolating limitations of the example with limitations of the argument. For a more complex example I highly suggest looking at the actual history around the heliocentric vs geocentric debate. You'll have to make an active effort to understand this because what you were taught in school is very likely an (very reasonable) over simplification. Would you like a much more complex mathematical example? It'll take a little to construct and it'll be a lot harder to understand. As a simple example you can always take a Taylor expansion of something so you can approximate it, but if you want an example that is wrong and not through approximation then I'll need some time (and a specific ask).Here's a pretty famous example with Freeman Dyson recounting an experience with Fermi[0]. Dyson's model made accurate predictions. Fermi is able to accurately dismiss Dyson's idea quickly despite strong numerical agreement between the model and the data. It took years to determine that despite accurate predictions it was not an accurate world model. *These situations are commonplace in science.* Which is why you need more than experimental agreement. Btw, experiments are more informative than observations. You can intervene in experiments, you can't in observations. This is a critical aspect to discovering counterfactuals. If you want to understand this deeper I suggest picking up any book that teaches causal statistics or any book on the subject of metaphysics. A causal statistics book will teach you this as you learn about confounding variables and structural equation modeling. For metaphysics Ian Hacking's "Representing and Intervening" is a good pick, as well as Polya's famous "How To Solve It" (though it is metamathematics). [0] (Mind you, Dyson says "went with the math instead of the physics" but what he's actually talking about is an aspect of metamathematics. That's what Fermi was teaching Dyson) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hV41QEKiMlM | | |
| ▲ | svara 5 days ago | parent [-] | | Side note, it's not super helpful to tell me what I need to study in broad terms without telling me about the specific results that your argument rests on. They may or may not require deep study, but you don't know what my background is and I don't have the time to go read a textbook just because someone here tells me that if I do, I'll understand how my thinking is wrong. That said, I really do appreciate this exchange and it has helped me clarify some ideas, and I appreciate the time it must take you to write this out. And yes, I'll happily put things on my reading list if that's the best way to learn them. Let me offer another example that I believe captures more clearly the essence of what you're saying: A model that learns addition from everyday examples might come up with an infinite number of models like mod(a+b, N), as long as N is extremely large. (Another side note, I think it's likely that something like this does in fact happen in currently SOTA AI.) And, the fact that human physicists will be quick to dismiss such a model is not because it fails on data, but because it fails a heuristic of elegance or maybe naturalness. But, those heuristics in turn are learnt from data, from the experience of successful and failing experiments aggregated over time in the overall culture of physics. You make a distinction between experiment and observation - if this was a fundamental distinction, I would need to agree with your point, but I don't see how it's fundamental. An experiment is part of the activity of a meta-model, a model that is trained to create successful world models, where success is narrowly defined as making accurate physical predictions. This implies that the meta-model itself is ultimately trained on physical predictions, even if its internal heuristics are not directly physical and do not obviously follow from observational data. In the Fermi anecdote that you offer, Fermi was talking from that meta-model perspective - what he said has deep roots in the culture of physics, but what it really is is a successful heuristic; experimental data that disagree with an elegant model would still immediately disprove the model. | | |
| ▲ | godelski 5 days ago | parent [-] | | > without telling me about the specific results that your argument rests on
We've been discussing it the whole time. You even repeated it in the last comment. A model that is accurate does not need to be causal
By causal I mean that the elements involved are directly related. We've seen several examples. The most complex one I've mentioned is the geocentric model. People made very accurate predictions with their model despite their model being wrong. I also linked two papers on the topic giving explicit examples where a LLM's world model was extracted and found to be inaccurate (and actually impossible) despite extremely high accuracy.If you're asking where in the books to find these results, pick up Hacking's book, he gets into it right from the get go. > is not because it fails on data, but because it fails a heuristic of elegance or maybe naturalness.
With your example it is very easy to create examples where it fails on data.A physicist isn't rejecting the model because of lack of "naturalness" or "elegance", they are rejecting it because it is incorrect. > You make a distinction between experiment and observation
Correct. Because while an observation is part of an experiment an experiment has much more than an observation. Here's a page that goes through interventional statistics (and then moves into counterfactuals)[0]. Notice that to do this you can't just be an observer. You can't just watch (what people often call "natural experiments"), you have to be an active participant. There's a lot of different types of experiments though. > This implies that the meta-model itself is ultimately trained on physical predictions
While yes, physical predictions are part of how humans created physics, it wasn't the only part.That's the whole thing here. THERE'S MORE. I'm not saying "you don't need observation" I'm saying "you need more than observations". Don't confuse this. Just because you got one part right doesn't mean all of it is right. [0] https://www.inference.vc/causal-inference-2-illustrating-int... |
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| ▲ | refulgentis 7 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| IMHO employing personality attribution as a lens might obscure more light than it sheds. I tend to prefer the ones we can tie to the thing itself, i.e. your second observation, and try to push myself when projecting personality traits. FWIW re: your first observation, the sucking up phrase has a link to an OpenAI post-mortem for the incident they are referring to - TL;Dr training response to user feedback |
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| ▲ | optimalsolver 7 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| >like when models start sucking up to users or making up facts That's the default mode of LLMs. |
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| ▲ | atoav 7 days ago | parent [-] | | As someone somewhat critical of LLMs, this is not quite correct. It is a true observation thwt any popular chatbots have a system prompt that give the resulting answers a certain yes-man quality. But that is not necessarily so. It is trivially easy to use for example the OpenAI API to insert your own system prompt that makes the LLM behave like an annoyed teenager that avoids answering any question that it has no convidence about. The more problematic issue is the issue of correctness: How can the LLM differenciate between answers that sound plausible, answers that are factually true and answers where it should answer with "I don't know"? The issue might not be resolvable at all. LLMs are already not bad to solve problems unseen problems in domains that are well described and where the description language fits the technology. But there are other domains where it is catastrophically wrong, e.g. I had students come with an electronics proposal where the LLM misrepresented the relationship between cable gauge, resistance and heat in exactly the opposite way of what is true. Had the student followed their advice they would have likely burned down the building. Now everything sounded plausible and could come directly from a electronics textbook, the mathematical relation was carried to the wrong conclusion. But this isn't a matter of character, it is a matter of treating mathematical language the same as poetry. | | |
| ▲ | duskwuff 6 days ago | parent [-] | | It's not just the system prompt that's responsible; RLHF training based on user feedback can end up overly reinforcing "agreeable" behavior independently of the prompt. That's a big part of what got blamed for ChatGPT's sycophantic streak a few months ago. > But there are other domains where it is catastrophically wrong, e.g. I had students come with an electronics proposal where the LLM misrepresented the relationship between cable gauge, resistance and heat in exactly the opposite way of what is true. Since you mention that: I'm reminded of an instance where a Google search for "max amps 22 awg" yielded an AI answer box claiming "A 22 American Wire Gauge (AWG) copper wire can carry a maximum of 551 amps." (It was reading from a table listing the instantaneous fusing current.) |
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| ▲ | Workaccount2 7 days ago | parent | prev [-] |
| >My understanding is that the former (sucking up) is a personality trait, substantially influenced by the desire to facilitate engagement. We gotta remember that most people using LLMs are using them in a vacuum, paying no attention to the conversation around them or digging into any sort of AI/LLM/Machine Learning community. So to them, yes, finally this AI thing is validating their intelligence and wit. It's a pretty slippery slope. |
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| ▲ | zer00eyz 7 days ago | parent [-] | | So yes this AI thing is finally validating my product idea that the engineers kept saying NO to. It's not just that it wants to find a solution, it's not just validating, it very rarely says "no". Its not saying no to things that are, for lack of a better term, fucking dumb. That doesn't mean the tools arent without merit. For code bases I use infrequently that are well documented AI is a boon to me as an engineer. But "vibe coding" is the new dreamweaver. A lot of us made a lot of money cleaning up after. It's a good thing. |
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